Uganda Looks to China
A new anti-gay law underscores the West's declining influence, as
Uganda pivots East.
By Clint Richards
March 04, 2014
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While East Asian investment in Africa, particularly from China, is
nothing new, Western influence in the political and social realms has
traditionally been the dominant outside influence. However, Ugandan
President Yoweri Museveni's passage of an anti-gay bill reveals a
changing relationship with Africa's foreign backers, as well as a
careful consideration by Museveni of the leverage he holds over
Western donors. Uganda has been steadily turning toward China, which
is becoming Uganda's preferred trade and investment partner. Despite
the large amount of humanitarian aid that still comes from the West,
predominately the U.S., the pillars of Uganda's economy are its
growing relationship with the East.
The U.S. and its allies are indeed seriously reevaluating their aid to
Uganda. The U.S. ambassador to Uganda
estimates American annual humanitarian aid to Uganda to be $720
million, and Secretary of State John Kerry said that could be cut in
the wake of the new anti-gay law.
Denmark says $10 million intended for the Ugandan government
will be diverted to NGOs for the same reason. Norway is taking a
similar route with its $9 million in funds. Sweden is reconsidering
its $10 million in aid, as is the Netherland with its $10.5 million
government subsidy.
China has long had a policy of not interfering in the internal
politics of countries with which it has trade and investment
relationships. Its main goal is political and social stability, which
allows for safe economic exchange and resource extraction. China has
in particular made a point of not pressuring governments on social
issues. It sees itself as unfairly judged by the West on issues as
wide ranging as political freedom, corporate espionage, the
environment, and its restive ethnic enclaves of Tibet and Xinjiang. In
that sense, China has created an atmosphere of solidarity with
countries like Uganda against perceived "social imperialism."
Chinese investment in Uganda is significant. In September 2013 China
National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) for $2 billion won the right
to develop Uganda's Kingfisher field, which holds an estimated 196
million barrels of recoverable oil. The Chinese have also invested
$3.7 billion in infrastructure to link Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya with a
rail line for export through Mombasa. China is also financing 85
percent of two hydroelectric projects in Uganda, worth $1.4 billion
and $556 billion respectively. Construction work for both have been
awarded to Chinese companies.
A lead investor for the 60,000 bpd refinery in Hoima worth $2.5
billion is expected to be announced in April. Given all of China's
investment in Uganda's energy infrastructure, not to mention the fact
that crude for Hoima will come from fields developed by CNOOC, the
likely winner of this lucrative contract also seems obvious. China has
made it clear that Uganda's social and political matters are not its
concern, and Uganda has responded warmly.
There is however another reason for Uganda to feel less pressure over
this law, especially from the U.S.: Somalia. Uganda was the first
country to deploy troops under the African Union peacekeeping force
AMISOM to Somalia in 2007, and remains the
largest contingent with more than 6000 troops of a total of 22,126
deployed. Despite AMISOM having driven the terrorist group Al Shabaab
out of the major cities of Mogadishu and Kismayo, Al Shabaab still
controls large swaths of the countryside and frequently attacks
targets inside Mogadishu. The attack on the hardened compound of
the presidential palace on February 21 is just one of many.
The U.S. and its European allies cannot afford to abandon their
mission in Somalia, or allow the largest contributor of forces to back
out. Both Uganda and its Western aid backers know this, which is why
Museveni probably doesn't feel he is risking much by signing the new
anti-gay law. The U.S. may make a token reduction in aid, or more
likely divert the money to NGOs and private health organizations. The
rebalancing of investment and trade in Africa toward China and other
Asian countries is having numerous unforeseen consequences for the
U.S. and Western Europe. The loss of basic human rights is an early
indicator of more to come.
Clint Richards is a Tokyo-based risk management and geopolitical consultant.
http://www.google.ca/gwt/x?gl=CA&hl=en-CA&u=http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/uganda-looks-to-china/&q=Uganda+Looks+to+China
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