Dust-up between South Africa and Rwanda. Will it escalate?
In a week where Pretoria and Kigali have expelled nine diplomats
between them, there is suspicion that Pretoria might expel Rwanda's
ambassador.
By John Campbell, Guest blogger / March 13, 2014
South Africa earlier this week expelled three Rwandan officials from
its embassy in Pretoria. They are charged with complicity in an
assassination attempt against a Rwandan dissident living in South
Africa. In response, Kigali expelled six South African diplomats.
Rwandan foreign minister Louise Mushikiwabo further accused South
Africa of providing a safe haven for Rwandan terrorists. There is
suspicion in South Africa that Rwanda has been complicit in other
assassinations or attempts against Rwandan dissidents, but apparently
there was not enough evidence previously to move against the Rwanda
embassy. Now there is.
The bilateral relationship between Kigali and Pretoria is complicated.
Kigali has close political and economic ties with Uganda and Kenya;
all three are part of the East African Community.
If forced to choose between Kigali and Pretoria, Nairobi and Kampala
are likely to choose the former. Nairobi is already cool toward
Pretoria: the Zuma administration is a staunch defender of the
International Criminal Court, where Kenya's President Uhuru Kenyatta
was arraigned and Deputy President William Ruto is currently on trial
for crimes against humanity.
South Africa also provides peacekeepers to the UN forces in the
eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where there
are widespread accusations of Ugandan and Rwandan support for the
anti-Kinshasa rebel militias.
Official Rwanda complicity in the attempted murder of an asylum seeker
in Johannesburg is, of course, an outrageous violation of South
African sovereignty. There is speculation that Pretoria may expel the
Rwandan ambassador. If so, that will almost certainly be followed by
Kigali's expulsion of the South African ambassador. Official
communication between the two countries would then be put on ice.
Simon Allison, writing in the Daily Maverick, points out that Pretoria
here has the high ground. The danger, as he also points out, is that
treating Paul Kagame as an "outlaw" and Rwanda as a "pariah state"
could become a "self- fulfilling prophecy."
On the other hand, plenty of observers in the eastern Congo would
argue that they already are.
How, then, is South Africa, a liberal, democratic state governed by
the rule of law but with African interests and aspirations to respond?
The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of Africa
bloggers. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the
Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is
responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a
blogger, click here.
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